Naive to think that a well-founded organization as a group the Muslim Brotherhood when it is exposed to a campaign aimed at eradication and elimination that he would not resist this campaign and is trying to eliminate his opponents.
It is obvious that the organization has tens of thousands of cadres with higher education and owners of high-end professionals and cadres seasoned in kinetic action and resistance and dodge the authorities and security services for tens of years and has roots very popular and tributaries, when it is exposed to fierce campaign like this it will not provoke it energies and calls queens of its members and their talents (At least out of instinct to stay) Resistance and the development of defense to attack through a well thought out strategy and plan carefully calculated stages.
The student group and Mahtk Brotherhood knows that the Muslim Brotherhood movement is not blindly, but always be supported to plan her timetable and criteria for achievement.
This is my article sheds some light on the features of what emerged from the Brotherhood does not plan to resist the ruling military regime in Egypt, but to overthrow this system has become - unfortunately - zero conflict between the two parties.
Some may wonder why I am talking only about the Muslim Brotherhood plan, they say, because the other opponents of the military regime did not show them the plans were not clear to them that the only strategy as the hard power of resistance to military rule in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood.
And Bmtabotai to statements made by the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood abroad and analysis issued by Alliance Data legitimate support and data Official Community, Bastaqraia events and listen to some of the participants in the revolutionary movement I think I formed a picture for this plan implemented now by the community and we must before we talk in the stages of the plan to realize Facts overtaken Brotherhood The girl on the basis of its plan.
The first fact:
The ruling military regime will not fall in Egypt using the weapon against him.
The weapons played fluently and has prevailed as the use of weapons that need to be fixed land is controlled with popular incubator project adopt armed resistance as well as financial and logistical support from one of the regional powers or international and this is what is not available in the case of Egypt.
The second fact:
The military regime will not fall in Egypt peaceful demonstrations only.
After the massacres escalated starting Republican Guard Prabah Adawiya through the first, second and Ramses and the end of the beat with live ammunition for any peaceful effectiveness on the streets has been shown that the system is ready for the genocide to protect itself even at the remains of his opponents.
The third fact:
The fall of the ruling regimes of the States comes in two ways:
- Either to come internal or external force displaces control of the State System.
- Or in accordance with the standards of the modern state in control of the state role in the development system and to meet the basic needs of its citizens fail and thus automatically lapse and be replaced by another force.
Accordingly - From the perspective of the writer - the Brotherhood has adopted the overthrow of the regime by Alafshal and it depends on a comprehensive strategy and an extended keep him out of the field strength, a weapon, violence and weaken gradually eventually leading to a fatal blow and blow.
And Bmtabotai to statements made by the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood abroad and analyze the data issued by the Alliance of legitimacy and support Bastaqraia of events and communicate with the participants in the revolutionary movement against the system; I think I formed a picture of the implementation of this plan, a list now - my personal opinion - in three stages:
Stages Brotherhood plan
I can say that the Muslim Brotherhood plan to overthrow the military regime in Egypt, ranging in three stages:
The first stage: Exhaustion
The longest and most important stages at all.
I mean by economic and security exhaustion, since any system is not available for the survival power of security only, modern state based on the requirements of the development of its people and provide the needs of their living and they are only the uprising against him.
Accordingly Vafshal system in its core mission puts pressure it is durable and even make him lose the popular incubator supporting him and this has already begun heralds where unmistakable appointed observer to the Egyptian would erode popular regime and its leader in a large and noticeable, especially after promises of glamorous homeland, which will become (May lower).
It is ironic that this method borrows from the Muslim Brotherhood and the army and its arms that were used to drop (Dr. Mohamed Morsi) All achievements are Thakerha and even turn them into negatives and all the misfortunes even bus accidents are leveled at the president and upload this responsibility as well as to bring cases of chaos in the streets and fabricating fuel crises.
Some journalists have been supporters of the high-end system (Adib O.amr) So Vsrah clearly told and in defiance of the Muslim Brotherhood, saying the text: (The game failed state de our game and we are who Amlnaha with Morsi).
And the continuation of the revolutionary movement against the regime despite brutal repression and the magnitude of the number of dead (Four thousand, according to various statistics) And detainees (The figure exceeded forty thousand) It was and still influencing factor in exhaustion and lack of system stability even in spite of the weakness of the movement in general under the influence of the security strikes, but the continuity is one of the most important themes in the plan and the Brotherhood was strong actors on the anniversary of the revolution of January 2015 (Especially in rain-fed area in central Cairo) Of the most important vital signs of movement and continuity.
As long as there are human beings walking in marches mark the massacre raise four fingers and are met on the other side and stay armored tank in the street will not be development in Egypt will not occur the system forward and one step towards the legitimacy of the security or economic achievement.
- The second phase: Confusion
It followed the exhaustion phase means that the system loses control of the reservoirs strength and joints of their own internal interests Vtaatdharb solid powers problem of the system and start changing loyalties and do a lot of jumping off the boat, which is about the drowning.
And so easy to move the popular sectors and push it wide of the revolution and the removal of the regime that has lost its raison d'être.
The activities of this stage are behind the scenes next to the street movement and also depend on the dismantling of regional and Western links the system after failing to install the pillars and control over patch protests, which can accommodate day after day.
There is no point system to govern a country that seems erratic and incoherent in front of his supporters and his allies and his enemies before his opponents, Fassaatha lose confidence in him and betting on other Itvahmun or with force on the ground.
The third stage: Projection
It serves as the final blow or finish a scene and I think I imagined parts of this scene but then dismantled as follows:
* Spark ignition.. And be in the form of an event is a stark and blunt, or stupid and thoughtless decision of the system.
* Rash popular masses of the double of the deterioration of living conditions and Anzhagaha Balglae and the removal of subsidies.
* A variety of youth blocks and come to the conclusion that he has no future in this country as long as these military in control of the reins of power.
* The vanguard of an Islamic youth got burned with fire and seasoned on the front and the revolutionary act and are willing to sacrifice in blood and withstand fire and form the spearhead in the confrontations with the forces of order.
* Media and cultural elite popularly discredited and no longer has a balance of confidence sufficient to guide the masses or misleading.
* Massive demonstrations armed with anything faced by the first shock of the might of fire system.
* Police Oeitha exhausted multitude of actors and the suppression of protests and the widening successive home patch.
* Officers and soldiers in the army lost trust their leadership and legitimacy of their defense after repeated failure.
* Arent the forces of order on the ground and scenes of refraction of the forces loyal to him on the satellite channels and communication sites.
* Chaos accompany all revolutions.
* Negotiations with the army and the West, the Gulf and shuttle between the capitals of the agreement in the form of the state and the system and arrangements for transitional justice and retribution on her head, which - my personal opinion - will not give him the Brotherhood at any cost.
Until this moment can imagine the scenario and what can happen.
But the case of liquidity which would be the state and society at the time no one expects dimensions where Sttqata national, regional and international interests and will move internal and external forces attempting to guide the liquidity situation to their advantage.
In addition to that it can not predict what the military regime in the country and the people would do if I feel its end.
Do you turn it to the incinerator where green Lebed and the ground and the rest of the state as Bashar al-Assad to do? Are the people of famine will deliberate until preoccupied with survival alive?
It is sufficient for you, dear reader, know that if it were cut off the road between wheat silos and mills of the Egyptian people Vsajua two days later and will not only find bread.
Is sectors will move from the army and biased to the people and resolve conflict early and impose order and security for its strength on the ground?
Is the army and order some of his heads-Sisi and the first of them to restructure scene sacrifice for him and whether the rebels will accept it again after trick 11 February 2011?
All these questions under consideration and I think it does not have a cathartic them answers, despite the claimed some Brotherhood leaders that they have a vision for the post-fall, but what has been declared by no more than a mere broad headings.
Some may think that the Egyptian state will collapse or Stft as other countries but what is reassuring that all the forces internally (Brotherhood - the military - the pillars of state Mubarak - the fragile political forces) And externally (West and even Israel! - At the heart of the Arab Gulf region) All of whom are keen not to turn Egypt into cantons where chaos hit from every direction, everyone is a loser Even if it does not grow in such an environment and expands only Aldoaash and everyone is keen on the cohesion of the Egyptian state that its fall will not settle the world, all over the world.
And it may be in store for no one knows the unseen one, and the sky plan other than the people of the earth by God's plan preserves the country and the people, and always plan Nadzh sky and always compelling and always where good.